Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 206.398136 245.075514 291.091944 350.478982 425.972557 519.947116 6.477107e+02
2025-10-19 162.485538 209.687244 272.298248 363.560943 496.945745 691.121489 1.007961e+03
2025-10-26 135.225309 185.066653 256.571005 370.796865 557.188527 866.404106 1.460388e+03
2025-11-02 115.808534 165.725879 241.809141 372.570518 606.360543 1040.837798 2.011317e+03
2025-11-09 99.764861 147.750445 224.421997 364.130569 633.485069 1185.333502 2.599043e+03
2025-11-16 87.531435 133.386777 209.619532 355.687302 656.685403 1330.867478 3.301659e+03
2025-11-23 77.720370 121.330656 196.328596 346.450014 674.693013 1472.712428 4.123028e+03
2025-11-30 74.587606 119.956921 201.338229 373.524874 780.211663 1884.596429 6.287797e+03
2025-12-07 69.046829 113.520771 195.850254 377.563914 833.451437 2187.801690 8.514453e+03
2025-12-14 64.941121 109.096795 193.416664 387.577325 905.789584 2599.315770 1.206390e+04
2025-12-21 60.320052 103.117700 186.942169 386.854450 949.097222 2946.333410 1.614324e+04
2025-12-28 59.020038 103.289558 193.025448 417.626665 1097.683252 3827.236423 2.735930e+04
2026-01-04 57.066943 102.109148 196.449163 443.914005 1250.475343 4928.763908 4.814701e+04
2026-01-11 54.705627 99.823604 197.125110 463.471441 1393.334885 6197.957945 8.559941e+04
2026-01-18 51.956279 96.397849 194.664662 473.788566 1509.662269 7520.914307 1.498932e+05
2026-01-25 49.031541 92.264700 189.919620 476.324139 1598.196603 8843.197259 2.591504e+05
2026-02-01 45.658190 86.810969 181.239190 464.861982 1622.284202 9751.863015 4.026176e+05
2026-02-08 42.631884 81.833302 173.100683 453.394650 1642.460418 10708.063049 6.443221e+05
2026-02-15 39.857650 77.162162 165.152204 440.868425 1652.831103 11636.514502 1.047474e+06
2026-02-22 39.547771 78.017029 171.422263 477.663833 1938.563349 16446.879227 5.161702e+06
2026-03-01 37.897350 75.618957 168.842509 483.172361 2062.522673 19845.567278 2.084196e+07
2026-03-08 36.681678 74.122315 168.487804 496.849752 2247.959335 25191.280254 2.894178e+08
2026-03-15 35.021764 71.417743 164.471950 495.861381 2343.850380 29625.931295 3.749958e+10